A low-pressure system developing over the Bay of Bengal could intensify into a deep depression and potentially develop into a cyclonic storm named ‘Arnab’, according to weather forecasts. The system is expected to strengthen over the coming days, with India’s eastern coastline, particularly Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, emerging as possible areas of landfall.
Although the storm’s projected path suggests that India could face its most significant impact, coastal areas of Bangladesh may also experience heavy rainfall, gusty winds and unsettled weather conditions.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), a low-pressure area originating near the coast of Thailand has moved towards the Andaman Sea. The weather system could develop into a depression between Friday, 23 October, and Saturday, 24 October.
Meteorological projections indicate that the system may move westwards and north-westwards from the Andaman Sea towards the southeastern and east-central Bay of Bengal. As it advances across the warm waters, favourable atmospheric conditions could allow it to intensify into a stronger depression and eventually a cyclonic storm.
Different Forecast Models Predict Possible Landfall
Weather forecasting models have presented varying projections regarding the storm’s development, movement and potential landfall.
The United States-based Global Forecast System (GFS) suggests that the weather disturbance could develop into a depression around 23 October before gaining strength as it moves north-westwards.
According to the model’s projections cited in the report, the system could intensify into a cyclonic storm by 25 October. It may subsequently approach India’s Odisha coast, with a possible landfall near Bhubaneswar during the night of 27 October.
However, projections displayed by the weather forecasting platform Windy indicate a different potential trajectory. Its forecast suggests that the developing cyclone could make landfall along the Andhra Pradesh coast during the night of 27 October.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has also indicated the possibility of cyclonic development, although its predicted timeline differs slightly.
According to the European model, a depression could form on 24 October and intensify into a cyclonic storm by 26 October. The system could then approach the Andhra Pradesh coastline, potentially making landfall near Kakinada around midday on 28 October.
These differences highlight the uncertainty surrounding the storm’s eventual course. Forecast models rely on changing atmospheric and oceanic conditions, meaning their predictions can shift considerably as a weather system develops.
The exact location and timing of any landfall will therefore depend on how the disturbance intensifies and interacts with surrounding weather patterns.
Possible Impact on Bangladesh
While the available projections suggest that the storm’s centre may move towards India’s eastern coastline, Bangladesh could still experience indirect effects.
Coastal districts may face periods of rainfall, strong winds and rough sea conditions if the system develops into a powerful cyclone.
The extent of these effects will depend largely on the storm’s strength, direction and distance from Bangladesh’s coastline.
Fishing communities, coastal residents and operators of marine vessels are particularly sensitive to changes in weather conditions over the Bay of Bengal.
As the system develops, updated forecasts from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department and other relevant authorities will be important in determining whether precautionary measures or maritime warnings are necessary.
No specific warning signal for Bangladesh can be confirmed from the information provided in the original report.
How Cyclones Receive Their Names
Cyclones developing over the North Indian Ocean, including the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, are named according to a predetermined list submitted by 13 participating countries.
These countries are Bangladesh, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Oman, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Yemen and Iran.
The naming arrangement is coordinated through the regional tropical cyclone warning system, with names selected in an established sequence.
A weather disturbance receives an official cyclone name only after it reaches the intensity required for classification as a cyclonic storm.
The original report identifies ‘Arnab’ as the proposed name for the developing system. The name, contributed by Bangladesh, means ‘sea’ or ‘ocean’ in Bengali.
However, the use of any particular name remains subject to confirmation through the official cyclone naming process.
Meteorologists Continue Monitoring the Bay of Bengal
The Bay of Bengal is particularly vulnerable to tropical cyclone formation because its warm waters can provide the energy required for developing storms.
Cyclonic systems can strengthen when sea surface temperatures, atmospheric moisture and wind conditions are favourable. Changes in these factors can also weaken a developing system or alter its projected movement.
The competing forecasts for the potential cyclone demonstrate why early predictions should be treated cautiously.
Although Odisha and Andhra Pradesh have been identified as possible landfall locations, the eventual track and intensity cannot yet be established with certainty from the projections cited.
Residents of potentially affected coastal areas in India and Bangladesh are therefore advised to follow official meteorological bulletins as the system progresses.
Further observations and updated forecasting models should provide a clearer indication of whether the low-pressure system will develop into a cyclone and which coastal regions could face the greatest impact towards the end of October.
