Erratic gas and electricity supplies have forced factories to scale back operations or shutter temporarily. Business leaders warn that this prolonged disruption threatens new investments and employment growth. In the capital, long queues of vehicles snake outside compressed natural gas stations. Due to low line pressure, motorists often fail to fill their tanks fully, forcing multiple visits a day and eroding both time and daily earnings. Meanwhile, residential pipelines remain largely dry, leaving households struggling to cook daily meals.

Petrobangla data reveals a stark mismatch between supply and demand. Total national gas supply stands at 2,336 million cubic feet per day, comprising 1,624 million from domestic fields and 712 million from imported liquefied natural gas. Against a daily demand of approximately 4,000 million cubic feet, the deficit hovers near 1,700 million cubic feet.

The power sector bears the heaviest burden. Gas-fired power plants connected to the national grid require 2,525 million cubic feet daily but receive only 700 to 900 million cubic feet, roughly one-third of their requirement. Although gas-based power generation capacity exceeds 12,000 megawatts, actual output languishes below 5,000 megawatts due to fuel shortages, compounded by technical hitches at several coal-fired installations. Load-shedding has consequently intensified across the country.

With peak summer electricity demand approaching 18,000 megawatts and growing at an annual rate of 10 percent, future requirements could surpass 21,600 megawatts within two years. Even if the current supply deficit shrinks, this surging power demand will introduce fresh pressure on the grid.

The primary driver of the crisis is the steady depletion of domestic gas reserves. Total daily supply stood at 3,168 million cubic feet in January 2020, with domestic fields contributing 2,578 million cubic feet. Over the past six and a half years, overall supply has contracted by 26.2 percent.

Although authorities have ramped up liquefied natural gas imports to bridge the gap, total availability remains below historical levels. A government initiative targeting 150 wells has completed work on 30, adding about 140 million cubic feet, with seven more wells expected to yield an additional 85 million cubic feet. Deep-well drilling projects are also planned for Titas, Bakhrabad, Mubarakpur, and Sunetra, alongside extensive seismic surveys and the procurement of two new drilling rigs for Bapex. However, exploration and extraction require considerable time before yielding tangible results.

With domestic output falling, liquefied natural gas has become essential, yet international market volatility makes this supply route precarious. Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions have disrupted shipments, driving up prices and complicating cargo procurement.

During the first eight months of the year, 68 cargoes arrived, down from 71 during the same period last year. An accidental fire at a terminal that halted operations for 16 days further strained the network. High seasonal demand through September and October necessitates at least 20 cargoes, making reliable procurement a formidable challenge.

To expand import capacity, plans are underway to build a new 500 million cubic feet capacity terminal at Moheshkhali in partnership with a Chinese firm, targeting gas delivery by December 2028. Yet, new infrastructure alone will not suffice; regular procurement requires secured foreign exchange reserves, dependable suppliers, and long-term planning.

To mitigate shortages, the government has allocated about 6,000 crore takas to boost oil-fired generation capacity, which exceeds 6,000 megawatts. Furnace oil generation costs approximately 21.51 takas per unit, which can prove economically competitive when liquefied natural gas prices spike. Coal-fired plants possess a capacity of around 7,000 megawatts, though recent technical issues and fuel bottlenecks have kept output below 5,200 megawatts.

While oil and coal offer temporary relief, they increase the financial burden of subsidies and strain foreign exchange reserves. Experts emphasize that overcoming the crisis demands a balanced strategy: aggressively accelerating domestic exploration alongside reliable, long-term import arrangements, prioritizing gas allocation, and diversifying energy sources toward renewables. Energy specialist Professor M. Tamim notes that despite high costs, necessary imports must be maintained alongside optimized domestic production and prudent fuel rationing to safeguard the broader economy.