Leading private think-tank Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) has reported that while the economy has witnessed a few positive shifts during the first six months of the current administration, negative trends remain predominantly widespread. Presenting its evaluation at a dialogue titled “The New Government’s First Six Months: An Economic Review” held at its office on Monday, the organisation highlighted mounting structural challenges, severe revenue gaps, and mounting pressures across key industrial sectors.
According to CPD estimates, the fiscal deficit is projected to range between 1.30 trillion and 1.40 trillion taka this fiscal year. Out of thirty-one major economic indicators, marginal progress has been registered in twelve sectors, including remittances and foreign exchange reserves. However, severe deterioration and deep concern persist across nineteen vital metrics, notably inflation and per capita debt.
Industrial Disruption and Employment Crisis
The industrial sector has faced some of the most alarming fallout. Between January and August, ninety-five factories permanently shut down across three major industrial belts: Gazipur, Savar-Ashulia, and Narayanganj-Narsingdi. This wave of closures has left 61,881 workers directly unemployed. Gas-reliant manufacturing—including textiles, steel, paper, particle board, and ceramics—has borne the brunt of the crisis. Industrial gas consumption dropped from 1,186 million cubic feet to 1,148 million cubic feet, while electricity generation growth plummeted from 5.6 percent to negative 0.1 percent.
Addressing the media, CPD Distinguished Fellow Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya noted that the government inherited a fragile structural and global baseline. However, he criticised the administration for failing to publish an integrated white paper detailing the exact economic baseline upon which it assumed office, complicating any objective tracking of statistical alignment. He added that reform initiatives lacked a cohesive roadmap, and several pledged commissions remain unimplemented.
Inflation, Governance, and Policy Responses
While headline inflation improved slightly from 9.1 percent to 8.3 percent, and food inflation dropped from 9.3 percent to 7.2 percent, consumer relief remains minimal. Wage growth crept up marginally from 8.1 percent to 8.2 percent, keeping real wage growth in negative territory. On the governance front, CPD reviewed 105 specific events, welcoming positive steps like restrictions on lawmakers taking plots and vehicles, expedited trials, and technological interventions in transport. Conversely, political appointments to senior posts, ongoing mob violence, and safety concerns for women, children, and minorities drew sharp criticism.
Summary of Economic Metrics and Policy Evaluations
| Indicator or Metric | Previous Status or Target | Current Status or Assessment | Directional Impact / Evaluation |
| Permanently Closed Factories | Baseline unregistered | 95 factories shut down | Negative trend |
| Direct Job Losses | Zero | 61,881 workers displaced | Negative trend |
| Headline Inflation Rate | 9.1 percent | 8.3 percent | Marginally positive improvement |
| Food Inflation Rate | 9.3 percent | 7.2 percent | Positive improvement |
| Industrial Gas Usage | 1,186 MMCF | 1,148 MMCF | Negative decline |
| Electricity Generation Growth | 5.6 percent | Negative 0.1 percent | Negative contraction |
| Projected Fiscal Deficit | Standard deficit range | 1.30 to 1.40 trillion taka | High fiscal strain |
| Overall Economic Indicators | 31 monitored metrics | 12 improved, 19 deteriorated | Mixed macroeconomic health |
| Banking Sector Consolidation | Fragile Islamic banks | 5 merged into a unified entity | Positive structural step |
| Senior Public Appointments | Merit-based pledges | Political leaning observed | Matter of public concern |
Despite ongoing hurdles, CPD acknowledged several progressive steps taken by the administration, such as expanding individual tax-free income thresholds, abolishing black money whitening provisions, promoting digital tax returns, and offering bonded warehouse benefits to non-RMG export sectors. Other commended initiatives include signing a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with South Korea, launching “Invest Bangladesh,” granting a 25 percent transport fare discount for senior citizens, and waiving agricultural loans and interest up to 10,000 taka. CPD research director Professor Mustafizur Rahman and additional research director Towfiqul Islam Khan also joined the dialogue.
