Khabor Wala Desk
Published: 9th July 2026, 7:20 PM
The race for the World Cup title has now been narrowed to just eight teams, with the quarter-finals set to determine the four nations that will continue their pursuit of football’s greatest prize. A glance at the remaining contenders highlights Europe’s dominance, as six of the eight quarter-finalists come from the continent. The other two places are occupied by South American giants Argentina and African representatives Morocco.
With every knockout match carrying enormous significance, statistical forecasting has once again become a major talking point. Football analytics company Opta has released its latest predictions using its renowned supercomputer, identifying France, Spain, England and Argentina as the favourites to secure places in the semi-finals.
Opta’s forecasting model has earned considerable attention throughout the tournament for its accuracy. During the Round of 16, the supercomputer correctly identified the likely winners in 14 of the 16 fixtures. It also accurately predicted the exact outcomes of six of the eight knockout matches, reinforcing confidence in its simulation-based approach.
The predictions are generated through approximately 10,000 simulations for each fixture. The model evaluates a wide range of factors, including recent team performances, individual player statistics, historical records, squad strength and numerous other performance indicators before calculating each team’s probability of victory. While the figures offer a statistical perspective, knockout football often produces surprises, where a single mistake, moment of brilliance or tactical adjustment can completely alter the outcome.
The projected winning probabilities for the quarter-finals are as follows:
| Quarter-final | Team | Win Probability |
|---|---|---|
| France vs Morocco | France | 72.10% |
| France vs Morocco | Morocco | 27.90% |
| Spain vs Belgium | Spain | 70.72% |
| Spain vs Belgium | Belgium | 29.28% |
| England vs Norway | England | 61.96% |
| England vs Norway | Norway | 38.04% |
| Argentina vs Switzerland | Argentina | 63.62% |
| Argentina vs Switzerland | Switzerland | 36.38% |
Opta is not alone in favouring the tournament’s traditional heavyweights. Brazilian media outlet Globo has also published forecasts through its analytical model, known as Crystal Ball. Its assessment likewise places France and Argentina in strong positions to progress, although it expects every quarter-final to be fiercely contested.
Both France and Argentina have justified their status as pre-tournament favourites with consistently impressive performances. They are currently the tournament’s joint-highest scoring teams, having each netted 14 goals so far. Argentina captain Lionel Messi leads the Golden Boot race with eight goals, while France’s Kylian Mbappé and Norway’s Erling Haaland are close behind with seven goals apiece, underlining the attacking quality still on display in the competition.
According to Crystal Ball’s projections, France and Argentina are not only well placed to reach the semi-finals but also have a realistic chance of meeting in the World Cup final. Its model estimates a 10.5 per cent probability of the two footballing powers facing each other in the tournament’s showpiece match.
Despite the confidence expressed by analytical models, the quarter-finals remain notoriously unpredictable. Momentum can shift within seconds, and knockout football has repeatedly demonstrated that statistics alone cannot guarantee success. The coming fixtures promise high-quality football, tactical battles and immense pressure, with only four teams earning the right to move one step closer to lifting the World Cup trophy.
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