Fragile Progress in Iran Talks

Diplomatic efforts to end the conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel remain uncertain, with negotiations continuing over Tehran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium and control of the Strait of Hormuz. Both issues have emerged as central obstacles in ongoing discussions aimed at securing a broader settlement.

According to Reuters, Pakistan has been actively involved in shuttle diplomacy between the parties. The report, citing a source familiar with the matter, also said that Qatar has joined mediation efforts and has sent a delegation to Tehran.

On Friday, Pakistan’s Interior Minister Syed Mohsin Naqvi held talks in Tehran with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Iranian semi-official news agencies Tasnim and ISNA reported that the meeting was part of several rounds of discussions between the two officials. The talks took place two days after Pakistan conveyed Washington’s latest message to Tehran.

Naqvi is reportedly attempting to develop a framework that could help end the conflict and reduce differences between the opposing sides.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters on Thursday that negotiators had observed “some positive signs” during the discussions. However, he warned that no agreement would be possible if Tehran proceeded with plans to impose tolls in the Strait of Hormuz.

Since the outbreak of the war on 28 February, Iran has effectively restricted much of the maritime traffic through the strategic waterway. Rubio said, “There are some good signs. I do not want to be overly optimistic. We will see what happens in the coming days.”

A senior Iranian official told Reuters that differences between the two sides had narrowed, although disputes over uranium enrichment and the Strait of Hormuz remained unresolved.

Economic Impact of the Conflict

The conflict has had significant consequences for the global economy, particularly in the energy sector. Before the war began, nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas shipments passed through the Strait of Hormuz, making the route one of the most strategically important maritime corridors in the world.

Uncertainty surrounding the peace negotiations has contributed to volatility in financial and commodity markets. The US dollar reached its highest level in six weeks on Friday, while oil prices continued to rise amid investor doubts over the prospects for a breakthrough agreement.

According to OilPrice.com, the global price of crude oil stood at $104.5 per barrel on Friday, an increase of 1.91 per cent from the previous day.

Key IssueCurrent Status
Main unresolved disputesUranium enrichment and Strait of Hormuz control
Date conflict began28 February
Share of global oil and LNG shipments through Hormuz before warApproximately 20%
Global crude oil price$104.5 per barrel
Daily increase in oil price1.91%
US dollar performanceHighest level in six weeks

Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG, said the conflict had entered its twelfth week and that six weeks had passed since the ceasefire discussions began. However, he expressed doubts that the United States and Iran were close to a final settlement.

Trump’s Remarks on Uranium

US President Donald Trump said Washington would ultimately take control of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium. The United States believes the material could be used for the development of nuclear weapons, while Iran maintains that its nuclear programme is entirely peaceful.

Speaking to reporters at the White House on Thursday local time, Trump said, “We will take it. We do not need it; we do not want it. Once we get it, we will probably destroy it. But we are not going to let them have it.”

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has reportedly instructed officials not to send the uranium stockpile abroad.

Trump also criticised Iran’s position on the Strait of Hormuz, stating, “We want to keep it open and free. We do not want any tolls. It is an international waterway.”

Iran, however, argues that part of the Strait falls within Iranian territorial waters and says tolls could be imposed as compensation for wartime losses.

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