Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea are escalating rapidly, with Addis Ababa accusing Asmara of “preparing to wage war” and Eritrea accusing its neighbour of fuelling “dangerous conflicts.” Analysts now warn that another war may be looming in the already fragile Horn of Africa.
Ethiopia’s Demand for Sea Access
For months, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has been insisting that his landlocked nation must gain access to the sea — though he continues to claim it will be achieved through peaceful means. Ethiopia, Africa’s second most populous country with around 130 million people, lost its coastline in 1993 when Eritrea gained independence.
In a parliamentary address on 28 October, Abiy declared he was “a million percent sure that Ethiopia will not remain landlocked whether anyone likes it or not.” He appealed for mediation, particularly from the United States and European nations, to secure a “peaceful solution.”
Eritrea, however, suspects that Ethiopia is eyeing its Red Sea port of Assab. Eritrea’s Ministry of Information denounced Abiy’s remarks as “fomenting dangerous conflicts.”
According to Kjetil Tronvoll, a professor at Oslo New University College and regional expert, “Abiy’s rhetoric about access to the Red Sea has been constant for the past year. He is gradually building a justification for potential military action by portraying Eritrea as a hostile neighbour.”
Ethiopia’s Accusations Against Eritrea
In early October, Ethiopia lodged a formal complaint with the United Nations, accusing Eritrea of “actively preparing for war.” Addis Ababa also claimed that Asmara was collaborating with the regional government of Tigray — which fought a devastating war against Ethiopia’s federal forces from 2020 to 2022 — to “destabilise and fragment” the nation.
Eritrea dismissed these claims as a “deceitful charade.” Nonetheless, analysts at Chatham House note that Eritrea has cultivated ties with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and other anti-government groups within Ethiopia and abroad.
Tronvoll suggested that Abiy’s call for mediation might represent a final diplomatic step before turning to military measures. “He is systematically constructing a case for self-defence and is dead serious about it,” Tronvoll warned.
Could War Break Out Again?
Ethiopia and Eritrea fought a bloody border war from 1998 to 2000 that left tens of thousands dead. Although Abiy and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki initially reconciled, relations have since deteriorated.
Satellite imagery earlier this year showed both countries massing troops along their shared border. While those deployments were later scaled back and intelligence reports no longer indicate an imminent war, Western security sources caution that “tensions are undeniably rising.”
Alex Vines of the European Council on Foreign Relations pointed to “the Egypt factor” as a further source of instability. Relations between Cairo and Addis Ababa are already strained due to Ethiopia’s construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which Egypt fears could threaten its Nile water supply.
Eritrea, with a population of just over three million, has recently strengthened its ties with Egypt. Last week, Afwerki concluded a multi-day visit to Cairo, where President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi reaffirmed his country’s “firm commitment to supporting Eritrea’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
Neither the Ethiopian nor the Eritrean governments have responded to AFP’s requests for comment on the mounting risk of conflict.