Bangladesh could experience an intense spell of summer heat this year, with temperatures forecast to rise as high as 42 degrees Celsius towards the end of April, according to the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD). The warning forms part of the department’s seasonal outlook covering the three-month period from February to April, a timeframe that traditionally marks the transition from late winter into the peak pre-monsoon summer.
Speaking on Monday (2 February), BMD Director Md Mominul Islam said that overall rainfall during the period is expected to remain close to the long-term national average. However, he cautioned that both daytime and night-time temperatures are likely to stay above normal across much of the country, intensifying heat stress and increasing discomfort for the population, particularly in urban and industrial areas.
The forecast suggests that the latter half of the February–April period may be especially volatile in terms of weather patterns. During this time, two to three low-pressure systems may develop over the Bay of Bengal. Meteorologists believe that at least one of these systems could intensify into a depression or even a cyclonic storm, depending on sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions. While it is too early to determine exact tracks or impacts, coastal regions are advised to remain alert.
In the earlier part of February, weather conditions are expected to be comparatively cooler but marked by reduced visibility. Moderate to dense fog may form over river basins during the first half of the month, while other parts of the country could experience light to moderate fog. Such conditions often disrupt road, river and air transport, particularly during early morning hours.
As the season progresses, instability in the atmosphere is likely to increase. In the second half of the forecast period, parts of the country may experience between four and eight days of thunderstorms accompanied by lightning, gusty winds and, in some areas, hail. These pre-monsoon storms—locally known as nor’westers—can cause sudden damage to crops, power lines and lightweight structures, even as they offer brief relief from extreme heat.
The BMD has also outlined the expected frequency and intensity of heatwaves during the period. Several mild to moderate heatwaves are anticipated, along with the possibility of one or two severe heatwaves. Prolonged exposure to such conditions can pose serious health risks, particularly for children, the elderly and outdoor workers, and may place additional pressure on electricity and water supplies.
A summary of the key elements of the seasonal forecast is presented below:
| Weather Feature | Forecast Details |
|---|---|
| Maximum temperature | Up to 42°C in late April |
| Mild heatwaves | 37.0–37.9°C (3–5 events) |
| Moderate heatwaves | 38.0–39.9°C (within same period) |
| Severe heatwaves | 40.0–41.9°C (1–2 events) |
| Thunderstorm days | 4–8 days with lightning and hail |
| Bay of Bengal systems | 2–3 low-pressure systems, one possibly intensifying |
Overall, the outlook points to a challenging pre-monsoon season characterised by intense heat, intermittent storms and the risk of severe weather events. Authorities and residents alike are being urged to monitor official forecasts closely and take appropriate precautions to minimise health, agricultural and infrastructural impacts during the months ahead.