Arsenal or Manchester City — who faces the tougher path in the final five matches

The destination of this season’s Premier League crown increasingly appears to be leaning towards north London, as Arsenal F.C. continue their strong surge while Manchester City F.C. struggle to maintain consistency at a crucial stage of the campaign. What once seemed a closely contested race has gradually begun to resemble a one-sided pursuit, with Mikel Arteta’s side showing impressive resilience and Pep Guardiola’s champions faltering at key moments.

Arsenal currently sit atop the table with 70 points, enjoying a nine-point advantage over City, who have accumulated 61 points despite playing a match more. With only a handful of fixtures remaining, every point carries immense significance in shaping the final outcome of the title race.

Last weekend’s encounter with Everton briefly unsettled Arsenal supporters. The league leaders appeared on the verge of dropping points before producing a dramatic late turnaround. Striker Victor Gyökeres and 16-year-old prodigy Max Dowman both struck in the closing stages, sealing a vital victory that kept the Gunners firmly in control of the title chase. The result not only preserved Arsenal’s lead but also reinforced the sense that Arteta’s squad possesses the depth and composure required to navigate the pressures of the run-in.

City, meanwhile, failed to capitalise on Arsenal’s momentary vulnerability. Guardiola’s side were held to a 1–1 draw by West Ham United, a team languishing in 17th place. The dropped points marked City’s second consecutive league setback, widening the gap between the two contenders and intensifying scrutiny over their recent form.

The upcoming schedule could prove decisive. While Arsenal appear to have a slightly more favourable run of fixtures, they must still overcome several tricky tests. City, on the other hand, face a challenging series of away matches that could further complicate their pursuit of the leaders.

Arsenal’s Next Five League Fixtures

Manchester City’s Next Five League Fixtures

Before these decisive league encounters, the two sides will also meet in the Carabao Cup final at Wembley on 22 March, a match that could influence momentum heading into the season’s final stretch. An international break follows, allowing both teams a brief pause before returning to domestic competition.

Arsenal’s first match after the break will be against Bournemouth at the Emirates Stadium. The earlier meeting between the sides ended in a narrow 3–2 win for the Gunners, suggesting that complacency would be dangerous despite the home advantage.

City’s immediate challenge appears tougher. A trip to Stamford Bridge to face Chelsea is rarely straightforward, regardless of Chelsea’s fluctuating form. The London side possess the quality to disrupt even the strongest opponents, making the fixture a potentially pivotal one.

However, the most decisive clash may come on 19 April when Arsenal travel to the Etihad Stadium. Many observers believe this encounter could effectively function as the league’s unofficial “final”. City will benefit from home support, but Arsenal’s points cushion provides them with a margin of safety.

Later in April, Arsenal host Newcastle United, a side traditionally formidable at St James’ Park but currently struggling for consistency. City’s corresponding fixture against relegation-threatened Burnley may appear easier on paper, though teams fighting for survival often produce spirited performances.

Early May brings a London derby against Fulham for Arsenal, a fixture that has caused them difficulties in recent seasons. City, meanwhile, conclude their sequence with Brentford, a team they have not lost to in their last six meetings.

As the title race enters its decisive phase, the contrasting momentum of the two teams may ultimately prove decisive. Arsenal hold the advantage in points and form, yet City’s experience of late-season surges means the contest remains far from settled. The next five matches could determine whether the trophy finally returns to north London or remains in Manchester once again.