Bangladesh’s central bank has sounded the alarm over a suspected attempt by vested groups to engineer instability in the country’s foreign-exchange market, exploiting global uncertainty stemming from the ongoing Middle East conflict.
Officials at Bangladesh Bank say they have identified efforts to create an artificial dollar shortage by fuelling rumours of a steep depreciation of the taka, with claims circulating that the exchange rate could climb to Tk130 per US dollar. Such speculation has already unsettled banks and businesses, raising concerns about market integrity.
To counter any undue volatility, the central bank has intensified surveillance of market activities and refrained from purchasing dollars from the interbank market—an unusual but deliberate move aimed at preventing additional pressure on the exchange rate. Typically, the regulator intervenes when banks’ net open position (NOP) crosses certain thresholds, but officials confirm that no such purchases have been made in recent weeks.
The developments coincide with escalating geopolitical tensions involving United States, Israel, and Iran. The conflict has disrupted global financial flows and heightened uncertainty in energy markets, placing import-dependent economies such as Bangladesh in a vulnerable position.
Despite these external pressures, the country’s foreign-exchange fundamentals remain robust. Commercial banks have reported a significant rise in dollar holdings, supported by record remittance inflows—particularly from Gulf countries, which account for more than 70 per cent of Bangladesh’s total remittances.
Key Forex Indicators (March 2026)
| Indicator | February 2026 | March 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Bank Forex Holdings (USD billion) | 2.30 | 3.90 |
| Monthly Remittance Inflow (USD bn) | — | 3.77 |
| Interbank Exchange Rate (Tk/USD) | — | 122.85 |
| Remittance Purchase Rate (Tk/USD) | — | 123.50 |
| Kerb Market Rate (Tk/USD) | — | 125.50 |
Data for March 2026 show that Bangladesh received a historic $3.77 billion in remittances, driving a sharp increase in banks’ foreign-currency reserves from $2.30 billion in February to $3.90 billion. These strong inflows would ordinarily ease pressure on the exchange rate, yet the taka has continued to weaken—raising suspicions among policymakers.
Market insiders point to unusual activity in forward dollar bookings, which may be artificially inflating demand and pushing up prices. The central bank is reportedly monitoring several institutions and has warned that inspection teams may be deployed if inconsistencies are detected.
In the interbank market, the US dollar has been trading at around Tk122.85, while banks are purchasing remittances at rates as high as Tk123.50. Meanwhile, the kerb market has seen the dollar rise further to Tk125.50, indicating a widening gap between formal and informal exchange channels.
Some bankers allege that a small group of private institutions may be contributing to these distortions through aggressive pricing strategies. Others, however, note that there is no corresponding surge in import demand, making the upward movement of the dollar difficult to justify on fundamental grounds.
Economist M Masrur Reaz, chairman of Policy Exchange Bangladesh, observes that global financial markets are already under strain due to the Middle East crisis. He warns that expectations of higher energy prices could encourage speculative behaviour, particularly in economies reliant on imported fuel.
Although Bangladesh’s macroeconomic indicators remain broadly stable, the central bank’s heightened vigilance underscores growing concern that sentiment-driven trading—and possible manipulation—may be exerting disproportionate influence on the foreign-exchange market.