Bangladesh’s gas shortage has moved beyond temporary disruption and is emerging as a serious threat to industrial production, exports and employment. In major industrial areas including Narsingdi, Narayanganj, Gazipur, Savar-Ashulia, Bhaluka in Mymensingh and Sreepur in Gazipur, gas pressure has fallen so sharply that many gas-dependent factories have either suspended production or are operating far below capacity.

In some factories, output has fallen to just 20-30 per cent of normal capacity, while others have reported declines of 70-75 per cent. Some factories are unable to obtain enough gas even to keep essential machinery running.

The consequences are visible inside industrial units that would normally be filled with the sound of machinery and the constant activity of workers. In some factories, employees arrive but have little or no work to do. Others have been sent on leave, while some workers have been asked to return home because production has stopped.

Industrialists fear that if the crisis continues, the damage will extend well beyond production and export earnings. Employment could also come under severe pressure. Factories must continue paying wages, servicing bank loans and meeting electricity, maintenance and other operating costs even when production is sharply reduced or halted. If the situation persists, some businesses may be forced to reduce their workforce or suspend operations altogether.

The crisis is also affecting several interconnected industries, including textiles, yarn, dyeing, finishing, ceramics, steel and spinning. As these sectors are closely linked to the ready-made garment industry, disruption at one stage of the production chain can quickly affect another.

Supply disruption enters a second phase

The latest deterioration follows nearly a month of significant disruption in gas supplies after an accident and technical problems involving a floating liquefied natural gas, or LNG, terminal.

There was a brief improvement when the Summit-operated LNG terminal returned to full capacity and the Excelerate Energy terminal resumed partial operations. That relief, however, did not last.

Gas supplies subsequently declined again, and the latest cargo shortage led to a halt in supply from the Excelerate Energy terminal, creating fresh concern across industrial zones.

According to Petrobangla, Bangladesh’s daily gas demand is around 3.8 billion cubic feet. Even under normal circumstances, supply falls short of demand. During periods of severe shortage, the gap becomes considerably wider, forcing authorities to make difficult choices over distribution among industry, power generation, fertiliser production, compressed natural gas and residential consumers.

Total national gas supply reportedly fell to around 1.73 billion cubic feet at one point in recent days. It subsequently rose to about 2.44 billion cubic feet before declining again to roughly 2.18 billion cubic feet. The figures illustrate the scale of the shortfall against national demand.

With limited gas available, power and fertiliser production have been given priority, reducing supplies to industrial users. Yet lower gas pressure can bring factory operations to a halt, threatening jobs and making it harder for exporters to meet delivery deadlines.

Narsingdi’s industrial wheel slows

The situation in Narsingdi, one of the country’s major industrial centres, highlights the depth of the crisis.

In Sadar, Madhabdi, Chowala and surrounding industrial areas, hundreds of gas-dependent factories have reduced production or suspended operations. According to local industrialists, Narsingdi has more than 4,000 small and large factories, including around 3,000 involved in textiles, dyeing, sizing, spinning and garment production. Around 400 factories are directly dependent on gas.

Industrialists estimate that the recent shortage is causing production losses worth several hundred crore taka every day in Narsingdi. Production at many factories has fallen by as much as 70 per cent, while some are operating at only around 10 per cent of capacity.

Several factories have attempted to keep boilers running by burning wood as an alternative fuel. Although this can prevent a complete shutdown, it raises operating costs substantially. At one factory, the additional cost of wood alone is reported to exceed Tk10,000 a day.

Workers have been seen burning wood in boilers at a factory in the Chowala industrial area. Entrepreneurs say sizing and dyeing operations are effectively impossible to run without adequate gas. Alternative fuel may offer a temporary solution, but they say it is not economically sustainable over a prolonged period.

Seven of 10 units shut at one textile mill

At Momin Textile Mill in Chowala, seven of its 10 units have been shut because of the gas shortage.

The factory is receiving less than half of the gas it normally requires. Its daily production capacity is 2.5 million yards of fabric, but output has fallen to only a few thousand yards. Around 1,500 of the factory’s approximately 2,500 workers are now effectively without work.

The situation demonstrates the financial pressure created by a prolonged interruption. Even when production falls sharply, wage obligations and other fixed costs continue.

Ashulia sees production fall sharply

The crisis is equally severe in the Savar-Ashulia industrial belt. A factory belonging to Fashion Globe Group in the Kathgara-Amtala area operated at reduced capacity for several weeks before eventually shutting down.

The factory has a daily production capacity of 50,000 pieces. After the gas shortage began, it managed to produce up to 20,000 pieces by sourcing gas from outside. Around 24 of its 80 to 90 machines also had to be kept idle.

The factory normally requires gas pressure of about 10 pounds per square inch. Instead, the pressure has fluctuated between zero and 2.5 pounds per square inch. Even when some pressure is available, it is often insufficient to keep the machinery operating.

Attempts to bring in gas from outside have also proved expensive, adding around Tk30,000 in costs per hour.

Another textile factory in Ashulia has reportedly remained completely closed for about 15 days. Its owner estimates daily losses at around Tk1 crore.

A separate dyeing factory, which has the capacity to produce 90 tonnes a day, is currently unable to produce even two tonnes. Around 975 workers are employed there, and wages still have to be paid despite the collapse in production.

For factory owners, this is one of the most difficult aspects of the crisis. A production line can stop within hours, but wage payments, loan instalments, electricity bills, security costs and maintenance expenses do not stop with it.

Dyeing and finishing operations hit in Narayanganj

The picture is similar in Fatullah and the Bangladesh Small and Cottage Industries Corporation industrial area in Narayanganj.

Low gas pressure has severely disrupted dyeing, finishing and textile operations. In some locations, gas pressure is reportedly between one and 1.5 pounds per square inch, far below the level required for normal industrial production.

As a result, large machines cannot be operated. Rows of unfinished fabric remain inside factories while production stays suspended.

In some establishments, workers report for duty before returning home. Others are being kept occupied with cleaning, maintenance and repair work in an attempt to retain them at the workplace.

According to the association representing knit dyeing industry entrepreneurs in Narayanganj, at least 152 factories are at risk of closure. Industry representatives have also reported that one factory has already shut down permanently.

The consequences extend beyond the dyeing sector itself. Garment factories depend on timely supplies of dyed and finished fabric. If those inputs are delayed, garment production and export schedules can also be disrupted.

Gazipur factory operates at a quarter of capacity

At Artisan Ceramics’ factory in the Mawna area of Gazipur, production has fallen to around 25 per cent of capacity because of the gas shortage.

The factory is capable of producing 22,000 pieces of tableware a day, but recent production has fallen to around 6,000 pieces.

Products requiring high-temperature firing have been particularly affected by the low gas pressure. Some orders have consequently been suspended.

The problem is not confined to current output. When production falls, factories may struggle to meet delivery schedules. If buyers do not receive goods on time, they may look to suppliers in other countries. Once an order shifts elsewhere, winning it back can be difficult.

Mohammad Hatem, president of the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association, said the gas shortage had moved beyond an ordinary business problem and had become a threat to the survival of industrial enterprises.

He said gas-dependent factories involved in dyeing, knitting and finishing were suffering severe production disruptions, with some operating at less than half of their capacity and others shutting down completely. Yet wages, bank loan instalments, electricity bills and other costs continued even when production stopped.

Hatem warned that if the situation persisted, many businesses could lose their ability to retain workers, putting employment at risk. He also pointed to the uncertainty over when gas pressure would be available and when it would disappear, saying the lack of predictability was itself a major problem for industrial planning.

Supply chain comes under pressure

The gas shortage is affecting yarn, fabric, dyeing and finishing factories more directly than many garment manufacturing units because these processes depend heavily on gas.

A garment factory may sometimes continue limited production with reduced gas supplies or alternative fuels. Dyeing, finishing and fabric manufacturing, however, rely heavily on boilers, steam and heat-intensive processes that require a stable supply of gas.

This makes the disruption particularly damaging to the earlier stages of the garment supply chain. If yarn production falls, fabric manufacturing can be affected. If fabric is unavailable, dyeing and finishing operations are disrupted. Delays at those stages can eventually leave garment factories without the materials they need.

Some industrialists have already said they are having to spend extra money to send goods by air in an effort to meet delivery deadlines. Others face the possibility of offering discounts to buyers.

The resulting costs extend beyond individual factories. Export earnings, foreign exchange income, supply-chain reliability and Bangladesh’s position in international markets can all be affected if production disruptions persist.

Employment is the biggest concern

The most serious long-term concern is employment.

When factories remain closed, owners cannot continue paying workers indefinitely without revenue. Reduced production can lead to fewer shifts, followed by leave arrangements, temporary workforce reductions and, if the crisis persists, possible layoffs.

In one Narsingdi factory, around 1,500 workers out of approximately 2,500 have already become effectively idle. An entrepreneur at a spinning mill in Ashulia has said that if the situation continues, the company may have no choice but to reduce its workforce by at least 30 per cent. Other factories have already sent workers on leave.

The economic impact would not necessarily stop at factory gates. Transport workers, food vendors, rental housing, local markets and small businesses in industrial areas also depend on the income generated by factory employment.

A prolonged industrial slowdown could therefore affect local economies as well as factory workers.

Three-way pressure on industrialists

Factory owners are facing three simultaneous pressures.

First, lower or suspended production is reducing revenue. Second, fixed expenses such as wages, bank instalments, electricity, security and maintenance continue regardless of output. Third, alternative fuels increase the cost of whatever production can still be maintained.

Some factories are burning wood to operate boilers. Others are purchasing gas from outside suppliers or using diesel-powered generators. These measures can help keep production going, but they are substantially more expensive.

Manufacturers also have limited scope to pass these additional costs on to international buyers. With global buyers already pressing suppliers on prices, much of the additional burden is being absorbed by the businesses themselves.

Gas and power shortages reinforce each other

The gas shortage is also affecting electricity generation. A significant share of Bangladesh’s power generation capacity depends on gas, meaning lower gas supplies can put additional pressure on electricity production.

When electricity is unavailable, factories often have to rely on diesel-powered generators. That increases fuel consumption and operating costs.

The result is a cycle in which gas shortages can contribute to electricity shortages, while unreliable electricity forces factories to spend more on alternative fuel. Industrialists say diesel consumption has risen several times in some cases because of prolonged load-shedding.

Garment and leather goods manufacturers are also facing higher energy costs. The timing is particularly difficult because international buyers are simultaneously demanding lower prices, leaving manufacturers with less room to absorb rising production expenses.

Mohiuddin Rubel, a former director of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association and founder and chief executive of Bangladesh Apparel Voice, said the gas shortage had become a major concern for industry.

He said disruptions in dyeing, finishing, knitting and textile factories were gradually affecting the wider garment supply chain. When one factory stops production, the consequences can spread to other factories, workers and export operations.

Rubel warned that a prolonged crisis could raise production costs and make it harder to fulfil export orders on time. It could also weaken buyer confidence and create a risk of future orders shifting to other countries. If production remained disrupted for an extended period, he said, some factories could also struggle to retain their workers.

He called for gas supplies to be restored quickly and for the industry to receive a stable and predictable supply.

Declining domestic output and greater import dependence

Although the immediate crisis is linked to problems at LNG terminals, the underlying challenge is broader.

Production from older domestic gas fields has been declining gradually, while insufficient new production has been added from new fields and wells. As a result, Bangladesh has become increasingly dependent on imported LNG to meet its gas requirements.

That dependence creates a vulnerability in the national supply system. When an LNG terminal faces a technical problem, an accident or a shortage of cargoes, the effects can quickly reach industrial consumers across the country.

The recent disruption has once again highlighted the risks of relying heavily on imported LNG without sufficiently strengthening domestic gas production.

Industry seeks predictable supply

Industrialists say they need, above all, a reliable and predictable supply of gas.

Even if a continuous 24-hour supply cannot be guaranteed, they argue that factories should be told in advance when gas will be available, for how long and at what approximate pressure. Such information would allow manufacturers to plan shifts, machinery use and production schedules more effectively.

The current uncertainty makes planning extremely difficult. Factories cannot easily determine when machinery can be operated, how many workers should be deployed or how much output can realistically be achieved.

Predictability, therefore, has become almost as important as the volume of supply itself.

Long-term solutions require broader action

Experts say the immediate priority should be to restore LNG supplies and bring affected terminals back into operation as quickly as possible.

At the same time, domestic gas exploration and the drilling of new wells need greater momentum. Existing fields should also be assessed for opportunities to increase production from wells that still have additional potential.

There have also been calls to accelerate efforts to bring gas from Bhola into the national grid.

Increasing gas supply alone, however, is unlikely to provide a complete long-term solution. Industry will also need to improve energy efficiency and expand the use of alternative sources, including electricity and solar power, where feasible.

Reducing gas wastage, tackling illegal connections and improving management of the distribution system are also important parts of the wider challenge.

How long can the factories remain idle?

The current gas crisis is no longer simply a story of temporary hardship in a handful of industrial zones. It is increasingly linked to Bangladesh’s industrial production, employment and export capacity.

Machines are being shut down. Production is falling. Workers are being sent home. Factory owners are absorbing mounting costs while struggling to fulfil orders on time.

The greatest concern is that disruption at one stage of production could spread through the wider industrial supply chain. If yarn, fabric, dyeing and finishing operations remain affected, garment manufacturers may eventually face shortages and delays of their own.

For that reason, the gas shortage is now an industrial and employment issue as much as an energy-sector problem. A rapid restoration of supply may ease the immediate pressure, but the longer-term challenge is to build a gas system that can provide industry with sufficient, reliable and predictable energy.

Until that happens, the question facing many factories is no longer simply how much they can produce today, but how long they can continue operating under conditions where the machinery may stop at any time.