Iraq is set to hold parliamentary elections on 11 November, and analysts believe Iran will be watching closely as it seeks to preserve its influence over its neighbour after losing significant regional leverage during the Gaza conflict.
Over the past two years, Iran-backed groups — including Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthi movement in Yemen — have all suffered major setbacks at the hands of Israel. Iran itself endured a devastating Israeli bombing campaign in June, briefly joined by the United States, and lost a key ally with last year’s overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in Syria.
With its regional standing weakened, Tehran is now intent on consolidating its influence in Iraq — a cornerstone of Iranian strategy since the 2003 US invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein. Iran exerts political power in Baghdad through its close ties with Shiite parties, which play a decisive role in appointing prime ministers, including the current leader, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, as well as through allied armed factions.
Political analyst Ihsan al-Shammari noted, “Tehran retains its influence as long as its allies hold decision-making power.”
Iraq, meanwhile, continues its careful balancing act between Tehran and Washington, long serving as a theatre for their proxy confrontations. Early in the Gaza war, pro-Iranian groups in Iraq launched attacks on US positions, provoking retaliatory strikes from Washington. However, those groups refrained from engaging in the subsequent 12-day Iran–Israel conflict, even after the United States joined the fighting.
Munqith Dagher, director of the IIACSS think tank, observed, “Iran is no longer in a position to impose its conditions — but that does not mean it will not seek to influence outcomes.”
In the 2021 general election, Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr’s faction secured the largest number of seats before withdrawing from parliament, paving the way for the Iran-aligned Coordination Framework to dominate the legislature and bring Sudani to power. This time, Sadr has refused to participate, denouncing what he called a “flawed election dominated by sectarian, ethnic and partisan interests,” and has urged his followers to boycott the vote.
The upcoming polls — Iraq’s sixth since 2003 — are expected to see low voter turnout. The Chatham House think tank has warned that “participation may fall to the lowest level since 2003,” with many Iraqis viewing elections “not as a means to influence policy, but as a performative act with little real impact.”
Over 21 million Iraqis are eligible to vote for 329 parliamentary seats, paving the way for the appointment of a new president — a largely ceremonial position — and a prime minister chosen through protracted post-election negotiations. Traditionally, the prime minister’s post goes to a Shiite, the presidency to a Kurd, and the parliamentary speakership to a Sunni.
Observers say Washington is also seeking to shape Iraq’s political future. Former adviser Ibrahim al-Sumaidaie stated, “There is a real desire on the part of the US to change Iraq’s domestic political landscape to curb Iranian influence.”
The United States has imposed sanctions on Iraqi figures accused of assisting Tehran in evading sanctions and has deepened its economic footprint through investments in oil, technology, and healthcare. Tamer Badawi of the UK’s Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) added, “Washington expects the next prime minister to take tangible steps to limit Iranian influence, regardless of the electoral outcome.”
“The US does not want Iran-aligned groups to retain operational autonomy, nor does it want Tehran to use Iraq to resell oil or access hard currency,” he said.
Currently, around 2,500 US troops remain stationed in Iraq, alongside 900 in Syria, as part of the international coalition against the Islamic State (IS) group. US Special Envoy to Iraq Mark Savaya recently stressed the importance of “a fully sovereign Iraq, free from malign external interference, including from Iran and its proxies,” asserting that “there is no place for armed groups operating outside the authority of the state.”
The elections will also cover Iraq’s autonomous Kurdistan region, where rivalry between the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) continues unabated. According to Iraq’s quota system, at least 25 percent of parliamentary seats are reserved for women, while nine are allocated to minority communities.
More than 7,700 candidates — nearly one-third of them women — are contesting the election in the nation of roughly 46 million people, in what analysts describe as a crucial test of Iraq’s political stability and Iran’s enduring regional ambitions.