The western Rakhine State of Myanmar has undergone a significant shift in control. Nearly 90% of the region is now under the authority of the Arakan Army (AA). Government troops deployed by Myanmar’s military junta have suffered successive defeats, leading to their retreat from both the northern territories and strategic coastal ports.
Parallel to this geopolitical transformation, Bangladesh too has witnessed political upheaval. On 5 August last year, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fled to India amid a wave of mass protests. Since then, intense discussions have emerged surrounding the idea of establishing a “humanitarian corridor” through Bangladesh into Rakhine.
In this backdrop, old speculations have resurfaced: Is the United States, along with its allies, preparing for a proxy war in Myanmar? Analysts, however, strongly dispute these rumours, asserting there is no credible evidence to support such a narrative.
Origins of the Proxy War Speculations
Analysts believe several recent developments have contributed to fuelling these unfounded claims:
| Factor | Description |
| 1. India-Arakan Army Link | Discussions have emerged about India’s increasing contact and intelligence-level ties with the Arakan Army. |
| 2. Humanitarian Corridor | Plans to create a corridor through Bangladesh to deliver humanitarian aid to Rakhine have drawn attention. |
These developments have triggered a wave of conspiracy theories, largely propagated by obscure websites, YouTube channels, and social media platforms. Among them, the “proxy war” theory has gained traction.
Nature of the Allegations
Certain diplomatic blogs, self-proclaimed security analysts, and nationalist social media platforms have suggested:
- The United States aims to use Bangladesh as a launchpad to interfere in Myanmar.
- The goal is to obstruct China’s strategic economic corridor that runs from Yunnan to Kyaukpyu.
- Countries such as Bangladesh, Turkey, Western intelligence agencies, and Rohingya factions are being implicated in a wider regional conspiracy.
Specific Claims Include:
| Claim | Detail |
| Drone Base in Cox’s Bazar | Allegedly, a drone base is being constructed to launch Turkish drone strikes against Myanmar’s military. |
| Foreign Mercenaries | Thousands of British and American mercenaries are said to have entered Rakhine via India’s Mizoram state. |
| Creation of Independent States | The US allegedly supports forming one or more autonomous states near the Myanmar-China border to disrupt Chinese influence. |
Lack of Evidence and Credibility
Despite these claims, no verifiable sources or evidence have been presented. Analysts argue that the proxy war theory is largely built on misinformation, speculation, and deliberate narrative construction by fringe commentators.
According to the Lowy Institute, an Australian think tank focused on global politics, security, economics, and diplomacy:
“All these speculations regarding Myanmar are excessively imaginative and lack credibility. So far, these ghostly claims have not faced widespread international scrutiny, which has allowed them to proliferate.”
Although the Democratic Voice of Burma has attempted to debunk several of these allegations with factual counterpoints, mainstream media has largely ignored the topic.
Expert Opinions
- The Lowy Institute states unequivocally:
“There is no evidence that the United States or any other Western nation is conducting a proxy war in Myanmar.”
- Even those allegedly implicated in these rumours have not acknowledged any involvement.
- While it is true that Washington harbours strategic concerns regarding China’s growing influence, the logistical complexity and political risks of direct military involvement in Myanmar are nearly impossible to overcome.
“Any covert military operation of such scale would be extremely difficult to keep secret for long,” the report observes.
Post-Coup Western Policy Toward Myanmar
Since the military coup of 2021, Western countries have offered some support to Myanmar’s opposition forces. However, this support has been:
- Non-lethal in nature,
- Largely humanitarian,
- Without any military aid or weaponry.
Academic Insights
According to Professor Andrew Selth of the Griffith Asia Institute at Griffith University:
“Myanmar has long suffered from an absence of reliable information, making it fertile ground for rumours and conspiracy theories.”
He further notes that certain news blogs and alternative media, coupled with the lack of verifiable data, contribute to the spread of politically motivated narratives, particularly in conflict-ridden areas.
Selth warns that:
“There appears to be a group attempting to intensify mistrust among global powers by stoking these rumours, thereby making the region more unstable.”
Contradictions in U.S. Foreign Policy
Analysts highlight that the Trump-era principle of avoiding foreign military entanglements still holds sway in U.S. policy circles. Hence, the likelihood of direct American military support in Myanmar is extremely low.
Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Perspective
According to the U.S.-based Council on Foreign Relations:
| Issue | CFR Analysis |
| Nature of the Conflict | Primarily an internal resistance against the junta, led by various ethnic armed groups. |
| Western Strategy | Focused on sanctions, diplomatic pressure, and isolation of the junta. |
| US Role | No evidence of direct involvement in any proxy war. If anything, US policy failures have allowed China to expand its influence in Myanmar. |
There is no substantial proof that the United States or its allies are orchestrating a proxy war in Myanmar. The claims are largely rooted in speculation, misinformation, and efforts by certain factions to create confusion and geopolitical instability.
The Lowy Institute’s comprehensive analysis confirms that rumours alone do not constitute reality, and caution must be exercised before accepting such dramatic geopolitical narratives without evidence.