The global reinsurance and insurance industry is expected to benefit from a broadly favourable operating environment in 2026, according to the latest annual outlook from Swiss Re. The report highlights that the global economy is projected to maintain steady growth of around 2.8 per cent, broadly unchanged from 2025, while inflation is anticipated to gradually ease, albeit with some short-term volatility remaining.
Swiss Re notes that despite persistent trade tensions, policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks in 2025, the global economy demonstrated resilience. Against this backdrop, insurers and reinsurers benefited from a combination of robust labour markets, attractive yields on long-term government bonds, and supportive financial market returns.
However, growth in global insurance premiums slowed in 2025. Real premium growth fell to 3.9 per cent from 5.7 per cent in 2024, signalling a normalisation after the unusually strong post-pandemic recovery period. The report suggests that this moderation reflects a transition towards a more sustainable, long-term growth trajectory.
Looking ahead to 2026–2027, Swiss Re forecasts that global insurance premium growth will moderate further to an average of around 2.0 per cent. Financial markets are also expected to remain somewhat volatile, as elevated asset valuations and ongoing policy uncertainty continue to weigh on investor sentiment.
Nevertheless, the outlook is not without positives. The report emphasises that steady economic expansion, combined with relatively low credit risk spreads in high-quality investable assets, should continue to provide support to financial markets. In particular, higher yields on long-dated bonds are expected to enhance insurers’ investment income, thereby underpinning overall profitability.
Property and casualty insurance outlook
The property and casualty (P&C) insurance segment is expected to experience slower growth over the 2026–2027 period, averaging around 1.1 per cent. Intensifying market competition is likely to place pressure on margins. However, structural drivers such as rapid urbanisation, increasing asset concentration, rising natural catastrophe exposure, and growing investment in artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure are expected to sustain underlying demand over the longer term.
Life and health insurance outlook
In contrast, the life and health insurance segment is projected to maintain comparatively stronger momentum, with average growth of approximately 2.8 per cent during 2026–2027. This expansion is expected to be supported by heightened public awareness of risk protection, rising demand for savings and protection products, and the continued normalisation of mortality rates following the pandemic period.
Stable returns from long-term bonds are also expected to support profitability in this segment, helping insurers maintain healthy balance sheets despite broader market fluctuations.
Forecast summary
| Indicator | 2025 Performance | 2026–2027 Outlook |
|---|---|---|
| Global economic growth | ~2.8% | ~2.8% |
| Global insurance premium growth | 3.9% | ~2.0% |
| Property & casualty insurance | Relatively strong | ~1.1% average |
| Life & health insurance | Steady growth | ~2.8% average |
| Inflation trend | Gradually easing | Further moderation |
Overall, Swiss Re concludes that the global insurance and reinsurance sector is set to remain on a path of stable and sustainable growth in 2026. While competitive pressures and periodic financial market volatility may weigh on performance in certain segments, the broader industry outlook remains cautiously positive, underpinned by resilient macroeconomic conditions and supportive investment returns.