The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), a Washington D.C.-based think tank, has issued a stark warning that the risk of armed conflict between India and Pakistan may rise in 2026. The alert comes amid escalating tensions in South Asia, marked by cross-border terrorist activity and frequent military standoffs along the region’s sensitive frontiers.
The CFR report highlights that “heightened terrorist activity” could act as a direct trigger for renewed hostilities between the two nuclear-armed neighbours. U.S. foreign policy analysts emphasise that, despite ongoing diplomatic efforts and international mediation, an upsurge in terrorist attacks could sharply intensify bilateral tensions in the coming year.
The report reviews key military and border incidents that occurred in 2025. Notably, a short-lived military confrontation erupted in May, a month after 26 civilians were killed in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir. India launched “Operation Sindur,” targeting militant camps inside Pakistan, in response to the attacks.
| Date | Event | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| 6–8 May 2025 | Indian Army strikes militant camps in Pakistan | Over 100 militants neutralised; 9 camps destroyed |
| 7–10 May 2025 | Pakistan attempts drone attacks on Indian targets | All drones intercepted; no casualties reported |
| 10 May 2025 | Military leadership dialogue between both sides | Ceasefire along the Line of Control; tension eased |
Beyond the India–Pakistan border, tensions along the Pakistan–Afghanistan frontier have also escalated. In early October, Pakistan conducted an airstrike in Kabul targeting Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) chief Noor Wali Mehsud, prompting retaliatory measures from Afghan factions and further inflaming regional instability.
The CFR warns that any surge in cross-border militant infiltration from Afghanistan into Pakistan could increase the likelihood of “medium-scale” armed clashes in 2026. Such bilateral tensions threaten to complicate South Asia’s security landscape, potentially destabilising the wider region.
The report urges the international community to intensify diplomatic engagement and strengthen border monitoring, emphasising that proactive measures are essential to safeguard peace and stability in South Asia. Experts stress that without sustained vigilance and coordinated international efforts, the subcontinent may face one of its most precarious periods in recent decades.