Fresh concerns have emerged over the country’s external trade position as the gap between merchandise imports and exports expands sharply, placing renewed strain on the broader economy. Although a robust rise in remittance inflows and a surplus in the overall balance have offered a measure of relief, stagnating export earnings coupled with rising import expenditure are posing clear macroeconomic risks.
According to the latest Balance of Payments report published by Bangladesh Bank, the merchandise trade deficit stood at US$11.554 billion during the first six months of the 2025–26 fiscal year (July–December). This compares with a deficit of US$9.76 billion in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year, marking an increase of approximately 18.34 per cent year-on-year.
Import–Export Performance at a Glance
In the first half of 2025–26, total import payments reached US$33.68 billion, representing a 5 per cent rise from US$32.00 billion recorded a year earlier. By contrast, export earnings slipped marginally to US$22.12 billion, down 0.9 per cent from US$22.32 billion in July–December 2024–25.
The comparative position is presented below:
| Indicator | Jul–Dec 2024–25 (US$ bn) | Jul–Dec 2025–26 (US$ bn) | Growth Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Import Payments | 32.00 | 33.68 | +5.0% |
| Export Earnings | 22.32 | 22.12 | –0.9% |
| Trade Deficit | 9.76 | 11.554 | +18.34% |
The surge in import costs has been driven largely by higher global prices of fuel, industrial raw materials and food commodities. Exchange rate fluctuations against the US dollar and resilient domestic consumption have also contributed to the increase. In addition, seasonal demand ahead of Ramadan led to higher imports of essential items such as edible oil, sugar, lentils and dates, temporarily adding to the import bill.
Current Account and Overall Balance
Despite the widening trade gap, other external indicators show improvement. The current account deficit narrowed to US$340 million at the end of December, compared with US$520 million a year earlier, signalling a modest easing of reliance on external borrowing.
Most notably, the overall balance recorded a surplus of US$1.94 billion, a significant turnaround from a deficit of US$460 million in the same period last year. Strong financial account inflows and rising remittances played a decisive role in this recovery.
During July–December, remittance inflows reached US$16.26 billion, an increase of nearly 18 per cent year-on-year, helping to stabilise foreign exchange reserves. Meanwhile, foreign direct investment rose to US$820 million, up from US$550 million previously, though foreign portfolio investors withdrew roughly US$100 million from the capital market.
Economists caution that if the upward trajectory of the trade deficit persists, pressure on foreign exchange reserves and exchange rate stability could intensify. Diversifying export products, enhancing production capacity and strengthening global competitiveness are widely viewed as essential strategies to mitigate emerging vulnerabilities in the external sector.