Attempts to rapidly defeat Iran in the ongoing Middle East conflict have largely faltered, forcing the United States and Israel to pivot to a broader contingency strategy, commonly referred to as “Plan B.” Analysts note that what was initially envisioned as a swift decapitation strike on Iran’s leadership has evolved into a prolonged campaign of strategic pressure, targeting infrastructure and critical assets.
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Leadership and Initial Objectives
Contrary to some media narratives portraying former President Donald Trump as the chief orchestrator, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has emerged as the central actor driving military operations. The original strategy sought to eliminate Iran’s Supreme Leader and the high command of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), thereby destabilising the government and dismantling the Islamic regime. Intelligence assessments, however, indicate that these objectives have largely failed to materialise.
Iranian leadership remains firmly in place under the new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, with contingency arrangements ensuring continuity even in the event of targeted strikes against senior officials. This resilience has necessitated the adoption of Plan B, which comprises two primary components.
Plan B Components
1. Encouraging Internal Opposition
A secondary element involves fostering unrest among minority groups such as the Kurds and Baloch, with the aim of initiating internal destabilisation. Analysts caution, however, that these communities are unlikely to fully align with Israel or the U.S., limiting the effectiveness of this approach.
2. The Dahiyah Principle – Targeting Civilian Infrastructure
The principal component draws on Israel’s traditional military doctrine known as the Dahiyah Principle: if rebellion cannot be incited or leadership captured, victory is pursued through sustained attacks on civilian and infrastructural targets. Historically, this approach was applied in southern Beirut against Hezbollah in 2006 and later in Gaza against Hamas, causing tens of thousands of casualties and widespread destruction, yet leaving these organisations operationally resilient.
In Iran, U.S. and Israeli forces are increasingly employing this principle, striking infrastructure, energy facilities, and military-adjacent assets. Pentagon officials warn that these operations may intensify, potentially inflicting long-term structural damage to urban and industrial sectors.
| Strategy Component | Target | Expected Outcome | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Internal unrest | Kurdish/Baloch minorities | Political destabilisation | Limited trust in Israel/U.S. reduces effectiveness |
| Dahiyah Principle | Civilian infrastructure & energy facilities | Pressure on Iranian leadership & society | Historically applied in Lebanon & Gaza with high casualties |
Regional and Global Implications
Experts warn that sustained Plan B operations could provoke retaliatory attacks by the IRGC, including strikes on oil and gas facilities in Gulf states such as the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. Such actions could trigger a global economic shock comparable to the 1973–74 OPEC oil embargo, affecting energy markets worldwide.
Current Assessment
While the conflict continues to escalate, indications suggest some Israeli and U.S. decision-makers are reconsidering both the scale and duration of operations. Former President Trump’s claims of near-total victory appear increasingly unrealistic. Analysts suggest that a prolonged engagement is now likely, though cautious optimism remains that strategic restraint and diplomatic avenues may mitigate the most severe consequences.
Plan B underscores the complex challenge facing the U.S.–Israel coalition: maintaining leverage over Iran without precipitating uncontrolled regional escalation, while contending with a resilient and adaptive Iranian leadership capable of withstanding substantial military pressure.