The widespread adoption of glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP‑1) weight-loss medications has introduced significant complexities for life insurance and reinsurance firms in assessing mortality risk. Recent research from Munich Re indicates that approved drugs such as semaglutide and tirzepatide could substantially reduce overall mortality among users. However, uncertainty over patients’ adherence and consistency in taking these medications has complicated the integration of such data into premium calculations and risk modelling.
The study analysed medical and prescription records for 41 million insured lives in the United States from 2015 to January 2025. Across populations with and without diabetes, GLP‑1 users exhibited lower overall mortality rates, aligning closely with clinical trial data for semaglutide, which has been shown to reduce rates of major cardiovascular events and death.
Life insurers, however, face challenges in estimating the long-term impact of sustained drug use and stable weight reduction on mortality:
Adherence and persistence: Many patients discontinue medication prematurely, reducing potential mortality benefits.
Variation in outcomes: While some patients experience substantial improvements, others see minimal or temporary effects.
Behavioural and disclosure factors: Applicants often do not report GLP‑1 use, complicating risk assessment models.
Swiss Re’s reinsurance modelling illustrates the potential reduction in overall mortality attributable to GLP‑1 drugs under varying scenarios:
| Assumption Scenario | United States | United Kingdom |
|---|---|---|
| Optimistic GLP‑1 adherence | ~6.4 % | ~5.1 % |
| Baseline / standard scenario | ~4.0 % | ~3.2 % |
| Conservative (limited adherence) | ~2.3 % | ~1.8 % |
Source: Swiss Re Institute, mortality modelling through 2045
For insurers, incorporating GLP‑1 usage into risk models can lead to more accurate pricing and a competitive advantage. Ignoring potential mortality improvements could result in premiums that are set too high, whereas overestimating drug effects could reduce profitability.
In this evolving landscape, access to high-quality data—including long-term electronic health records and multi-dimensional modelling—has become essential. These tools allow life insurers to quantify the impact of metabolic therapies on population health accurately, ensuring that risk assessments reflect the transformative potential of weight-loss medications.