Bangladesh is likely to experience warmer-than-normal conditions and below-average rainfall throughout June, according to the latest long-range forecast issued by the Meteorological Department. The outlook suggests that rising temperatures, combined with a potential shortfall in precipitation, could increase pressure on agriculture, water resources, public health and electricity demand during the early stages of the monsoon season.
Meteorologists have warned that two to three spells of mild to moderate heatwaves may affect different parts of the country during the month. Such conditions could lead to prolonged periods of discomfort, particularly in urban centres and regions already experiencing elevated temperatures.
The forecast comes after an unusually wet pre-monsoon period. During April and May, several parts of Bangladesh recorded rainfall levels above seasonal norms. April was particularly notable, with precipitation exceeding the long-term average by more than 75 per cent, making it one of the wetter Aprils in recent years. Despite this surplus rainfall earlier in the season, weather experts believe that overall rainfall during June could remain below the climatological average.
Forecasters also expect multiple low-pressure systems to develop over the Bay of Bengal and adjacent areas during the month. At least one of these systems may intensify into a monsoon depression. Although such weather systems typically enhance rainfall, their formation does not necessarily guarantee that nationwide precipitation will reach normal levels.
June traditionally marks the effective onset of the monsoon across most of Bangladesh and is usually one of the wettest months of the year. Historical climate data indicate that the country receives an average of approximately 459 millimetres of rainfall during June, second only to July, when average monthly rainfall reaches around 523 millimetres.
Expected Weather Conditions in June
| Weather Element | Forecast |
|---|---|
| Rainfall | Below normal |
| Temperature | Above normal |
| Heatwaves | Two to three mild to moderate spells |
| Low-pressure systems | Several likely to form |
| Monsoon depression | At least one possible |
| Monsoon advancement | Likely to spread across most regions early in the month |
The Meteorological Department also noted that the southwest monsoon is expected to advance across much of the country from the beginning of June. However, the presence of monsoon winds may not immediately bring sustained relief from the heat. Instead, high humidity levels could make conditions feel more oppressive, even during periods of rainfall.
A review of weather conditions in May showed that nationwide rainfall was approximately 7 per cent above normal. Regional analysis revealed significant variation. Rangpur Division recorded nearly 99 per cent more rainfall than average, making it the wettest-performing region relative to its seasonal norm. In contrast, Chattogram, Khulna and Barishal divisions experienced comparatively lower rainfall totals.
Heatwave conditions have already emerged during the opening days of June. According to official observations, mild heatwaves affected 34 districts across the country, including all districts of Rajshahi and Rangpur divisions, most districts in Khulna Division, and several districts such as Tangail, Faridpur, Narsingdi, Gopalganj, Mymensingh, Chandpur, Barishal and Bhola. Temperatures in these areas rose noticeably, increasing the risk of heat-related discomfort and health concerns.
Experts caution that a combination of reduced rainfall and higher temperatures could have important implications for crop cultivation, irrigation requirements and water management. Farmers may need to monitor soil moisture closely, particularly in areas dependent on rainfall for agricultural production. Public health specialists have also advised additional precautions for children, older adults and outdoor workers, who are generally more vulnerable during heatwave conditions.
With weather patterns remaining highly variable, meteorologists are urging both government agencies and the public to follow regular forecast updates and preparedness advisories throughout the month. Careful monitoring of evolving conditions will be essential as Bangladesh navigates the early phase of the 2026 monsoon season.