Short-Term Flood Risk Across Northern Regions

Rising river levels across several catchments have raised the possibility of short-term flooding in seven districts of northern Bangladesh and parts of Sylhet, according to a latest bulletin issued by the Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre under the Bangladesh Water Development Board.

The bulletin, released on Saturday, indicates that the Kushiyara River is currently flowing above the danger level at the Fenchuganj point in Sylhet, standing 1 centimetre above the threshold. This development has heightened concern for low-lying areas along riverbanks in Sylhet and Sunamganj, where short-duration flooding may occur within the next 72 hours.

Several other rivers are also flowing near or at alert levels. The Teesta at Dalia in Nilphamari, the Surma at Markuli in Sunamganj, the Kushiyara in the Maulvibazar stretch, and the Someshwari in Kalmakanda, Netrokona are all showing elevated water levels, signalling continued hydrological pressure across the region.

Over the past 24 hours, river levels in the Teesta and Dharla within the Rangpur division have remained largely stable, while the Dudhkumar has recorded a decline. However, forecasts suggest a reversal in this trend, with water levels expected to rise again over the next three days. There is a risk that these rivers may cross danger levels within the next 72 hours, potentially affecting low-lying areas in Nilphamari, Lalmonirhat, Kurigram, Rangpur, and Gaibandha.

The bulletin also attributes the evolving situation to sustained heavy to very heavy rainfall in the Sylhet division and upstream regions of India, including Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh. Meteorological projections indicate that heavy to extremely heavy rainfall may continue over the next five days across Rangpur, Sylhet, and Mymensingh divisions, as well as adjoining upstream areas in West Bengal, Assam, and Meghalaya.

The Brahmaputra–Jamuna river system has shown a steady rise in water levels over the past 24 hours, a trend expected to persist for several more days. Between 30 June and 2 July, these rivers may flow near or above danger levels in districts including Kurigram, Gaibandha, Jamalpur, Bogura, Sirajganj, and Tangail, raising the likelihood of localised inundation in adjacent floodplain areas.

In the north-eastern region, the Kushiyara continues to rise while the Surma shows a temporary decline, though further increases are anticipated within three days. Similarly, rivers such as the Khowai and Someshwari in Sylhet and Mymensingh divisions have recorded rising trends, whereas the Manu and Dhalai have seen slight decreases. The Sarigowain and Jadukata rivers remain stable for now, though forecasts suggest they too may begin to rise shortly.

Authorities have warned that the Someshwari River in Netrokona may again approach alert levels, raising the possibility of temporary flooding in nearby low-lying areas. With rainfall activity expected to continue across upstream and local catchments, water levels across multiple river systems remain under close observation.