War risk insurance for vessels visiting ports in the Black Sea has surged nearly threefold following a series of attacks targeting Russia’s so-called shadow fleet. Analysts warn that maritime insurers are adjusting premiums rapidly as geopolitical tensions and operational hazards in the region intensify.
According to Marsh, the world’s largest insurance broker, premiums for war risk coverage had previously ranged from 0.25% to 0.3% of a vessel’s value. In the wake of recent attacks, coverage for certain Ukrainian ports has risen to as much as 1%, reflecting insurers’ growing caution. Two market insiders familiar with the negotiations, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed the spike.
Munro Anderson, Head of Operations at Vessel Protect, part of Pen Underwriting, explained, “For Russian port calls, underwriters are now factoring in both potential strike locations and the likelihood of repeated attacks. As incidents escalate, so too does the risk of Russian retaliation against vessels perceived to be linked to Ukraine.”
The increased premiums come amid heightened maritime risks in the Black Sea. In recent weeks, several strikes on Russian oil and port infrastructure have disrupted normal shipping operations. Romania’s Ministry of Defence reported that divers carried out a mission to neutralise a Sea Baby drone 36 miles east of Constanta, underscoring the potential danger to commercial shipping in regional waters, even for nations not directly involved in the conflict.
Dylan Mortimer, Marsh’s Marine Hull UK War Leader, noted, “Insurance rates have increased steadily in direct response to attacks, which are increasingly targeting both vessels and port or terminal infrastructure. Underwriters are revising risk models daily to reflect the evolving threat landscape.”
The table below illustrates the approximate changes in war risk insurance premiums for vessels in the Black Sea:
| Port/Region | Premium Before Attacks (% of Vessel Value) | Premium After Recent Attacks (% of Vessel Value) |
|---|---|---|
| Ukrainian Ports | 0.25–0.3 | Up to 1.0 |
| Russian Ports | 0.25–0.3 | 0.5–0.8 (varies by location and risk profile) |
| Other Black Sea Ports | 0.25–0.3 | 0.3–0.5 |
Industry experts caution that further escalation in the region could drive premiums higher still, potentially affecting shipping costs and trade flows. Shipowners and operators are now under pressure to assess routes and port calls carefully, balancing operational efficiency against increased insurance costs and safety concerns.