Bangladesh may face a volatile mix of severe heatwaves and heightened cyclone-related risks throughout April, particularly during the latter half of the month, according to a seasonal outlook issued by the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD). The three-month forecast covering February to April warns of marked atmospheric instability, with sharp contrasts between oppressive heat on some days and intense pre-monsoon storms on others.
Meteorologists anticipate that between two and three low-pressure systems could form over the Bay of Bengal during the second half of April. At least one of these systems may intensify into a depression or cyclone. While it remains too early to determine precise timing or landfall locations, both coastal districts and inland regions could experience direct or indirect impacts. Potential hazards include heavy rainfall, squally and gusty winds, and the risk of storm surges in low-lying coastal areas, raising concerns for fisheries, ports, and vulnerable communities.
Alongside cyclonic threats, pre-monsoon thunderstorms are expected to remain active throughout April. The BMD forecasts four to eight days of thunderstorms across different parts of the country, accompanied by lightning, strong winds, and occasional hail. Northern and central regions are assessed to be comparatively more exposed. Such storms often strike suddenly in the late afternoon or evening, increasing the likelihood of crop damage, disruptions to electricity supply, and hazards to road and river transport.
BMD Director Md Mominul Islam noted that overall rainfall during February–April is likely to remain close to the long-term average. However, both daytime and night-time temperatures are expected to be above normal. This combination of elevated heat and irregular rainfall could intensify public discomfort and pose health risks, particularly for outdoor workers, children, and older adults. Heat stress, dehydration, and related illnesses may become more prevalent during prolonged hot spells.
The forecast also highlights fog conditions earlier in the season. During the first half of February, moderate to dense fog may occur in riverine areas, while other regions could experience light to moderate fog. Reduced visibility may elevate accident risks across road, river, and air transport networks.
Climate specialists observe that the projected increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves and cyclones across South Asia aligns with broader climate change trends. They stress the importance of early preparedness, close monitoring of official forecasts, and timely preventive measures, particularly in coastal and agriculture-dependent regions.
Expected Heatwave Patterns in April
| Heatwave Category | Temperature Range (°C) | Likely Occurrences |
|---|---|---|
| Mild heatwave | 37.0 – 37.9 | 3–5 times |
| Moderate heatwave | 38.0 – 39.9 | 3–5 times |
| Severe heatwave | 40.0 – 41.9 | 1–2 times |
The Meteorological Department has stated that forecasts will be updated regularly as conditions evolve. Members of the public are urged to remain vigilant, follow official advisories, and take necessary precautions to safeguard lives and livelihoods during this period of heightened weather risk.