Despite robust growth in bank deposits, lending to the private sector has shown minimal advancement, according to the latest economic assessment. Overall inflation has declined to single-digit figures, primarily due to easing food prices, yet the National Board of Revenue (NBR) continues to fall short of its collection targets.
These findings were outlined in the November Economic Update and Outlook, released on Monday by the General Economics Division (GED) of the Planning Commission. The report presents a comprehensive overview of recent macroeconomic trends, highlighting both areas of stability and ongoing challenges in the domestic economy.
The GED report notes that while exports have experienced some fluctuations, a moderate recovery is anticipated in the coming months. The reduction in inflation reflects stabilising food prices and improved supply conditions. In particular, domestic supply chains have shown slow but steady stabilisation, while lower pressures from imported goods have contributed to overall price moderation. Consequently, overall inflation declined to 8.17 percent in October 2025, marking a significant improvement from earlier in the year.
Food inflation fell to 7.08 percent in October, reflecting lower prices for staple goods. Conversely, external inflation, driven by housing, transport, and healthcare costs, edged slightly higher to 9.13 percent, underscoring persistent pressures in non-food sectors.
Rice prices, a key component of food inflation, began declining in the first half of 2025. Factors contributing to this trend include increased domestic stocks from new Aman crop harvests, imports, and targeted government procurement initiatives. Government interventions have successfully reduced the average retail price of rice, resulting in a 13.77 percent drop in rice inflation in October. Meanwhile, prices of fish and meat remain central drivers of overall food inflation, continuing to influence household budgets significantly.
The following table summarises key indicators outlined in the GED report:
| Indicator | October 2025 | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Inflation | 8.17% | Decline due to stabilising food prices |
| Food Inflation | 7.08% | Lower prices for rice and other staples |
| Rice Inflation | 13.77% | Decline aided by new crops, imports, gov’t support |
| External Inflation | 9.13% | Pressure from housing, transport, healthcare |
| Private Sector Lending Growth | Minimal | Bank deposits rising, but lending stagnant |
| Export Performance | Fluctuating | Moderate recovery expected |
The GED report highlights the need for continued policy focus on stimulating private sector credit, sustaining export growth, and strengthening revenue collection to support broader economic stability.