Medical experts have issued a cautionary warning that smallpox, once eradicated globally, could potentially re-emerge as a deadly pandemic in the future—or that closely related viruses might occupy its ecological niche.
Smallpox, known scientifically as Variola virus, was officially declared eradicated in 1980 following a global vaccination campaign led by the World Health Organization (WHO). Since then, samples of the virus have been retained only in a handful of highly secure laboratories, primarily for research purposes.
However, scientists now express concern that the cessation of routine smallpox vaccinations over the past several decades has left humanity increasingly vulnerable. With natural immunity against poxviruses in the human population significantly diminished, other members of the orthopoxvirus family could exploit this immunity gap and trigger major outbreaks.
Among the viruses raising concern are the more familiar monkeypox, as well as the less commonly known cowpox, buffalopox, and camelpox. Experts warn that these viruses could, over time, adapt to human hosts and create new global health risks, effectively filling the void left by smallpox.
Historically, smallpox was among the deadliest infectious diseases. During the 20th century alone, it is estimated to have claimed approximately 500 million lives worldwide, making it one of the most catastrophic pandemics in human history. This devastating legacy has informed modern public health strategies, emphasising vigilance, monitoring, and preparedness against poxviruses.
To provide a clearer overview, the table below summarises notable poxviruses of concern today:
| Virus Name | Common Host(s) | Human Infection Status | Notes on Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Variola (Smallpox) | Humans | Eradicated (1980) | Samples exist only in secure labs |
| Monkeypox | Primates, rodents | Sporadic outbreaks | Increasing cases globally |
| Cowpox | Cattle, rodents | Rare in humans | Potential to adapt to humans |
| Buffalopox | Buffalo, cattle | Rare | Limited human transmission reported |
| Camelpox | Camels | Rare | Potential zoonotic spillover |
Public health authorities stress that proactive surveillance, research into emerging poxviruses, and renewed focus on vaccination strategies are critical. Although smallpox itself has been eradicated, its relatives continue to pose unpredictable threats. Scientists argue that monitoring these viruses and maintaining rapid response capabilities could prevent a future pandemic reminiscent of the devastation caused by smallpox.
With global interconnectedness and changing ecosystems, the possibility of orthopoxvirus outbreaks cannot be dismissed. Experts therefore advocate for international cooperation to strengthen early detection, containment measures, and preparedness planning—ensuring that lessons learned from the catastrophic history of smallpox are not forgotten.