Despite initiating a military confrontation with Iran, Donald Trump has failed to secure widespread support among American citizens. Public opinion indicates that the conflict is highly unpopular across the United States. Simultaneously, a sharp rise in oil prices is gradually affecting nearly every sector of the American economy, raising concerns about the broader political and economic consequences of prolonged hostilities.
Analysts have noted that regardless of the immediate outcome of the conflict, the economic strain could exert significant influence over U.S. politics, potentially undermining Trump’s position. Yet, the former president remains publicly confident. The recent detention of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is being hailed by Trump as a major success. According to him, this operation not only secured access to Venezuela’s oil and critical mineral resources but also applied pressure on the Cuban government, limiting its energy sources. Trump suggests that weakening Cuba, long considered a thorn in Washington’s side since 1959, demonstrates a model for broader regional influence.
Trump anticipates similar strategic victories in joint operations with Israel against Iran. Despite missile and drone attacks from Iran targeting U.S. bases in neighbouring Arab nations, Trump remains adamant about eventual American success, though he has been vague on what constitutes “victory.” On social media, he claimed that neutralising Iran’s nuclear threat would quickly reduce oil prices, describing the current spike as a “very small price” for U.S. and global security.
Economically, the impact of rising energy costs is increasingly visible. Transport, agriculture, retail, and aviation sectors are all facing higher operational expenses. Fuel and fertiliser price hikes are contributing to rising food costs, while inflation, which stood at 2.4 per cent in February, could surge further in March. Rising costs also threaten SUV sales and may hinder the Federal Reserve’s plans to reduce interest rates.
The table below highlights U.S. energy consumption shifts over recent decades:
| Energy Source | 1973 (%) | Current (%) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil | 48 | 38 | -10 |
| Natural Gas | 30 | 36 | +6 |
Despite growing energy self-sufficiency, the U.S. remains vulnerable to global market volatility. Pressures on the Strait of Hormuz and disruptions in Qatari LNG production have caused international concern. Yet the S&P 500 remains near record highs, reflecting investor confidence and perceived economic resilience.
Experts caution that Trump’s main challenge is political rather than military. Historical experience shows that public opposition often hampers military campaigns. Inflationary pressures combined with the high costs of war could erode domestic support, particularly if oil prices remain elevated, potentially averaging near $140 per barrel for extended periods. The International Energy Institute describes the current Middle East conflict as one of the largest supply shocks in history, with prolonged disruption risking widespread economic instability.
Trump’s statements also reveal a duality: demanding Iran’s unconditional surrender while simultaneously claiming the war is nearly over. On the ground, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard retains thousands of armed personnel capable of sustained resistance, suggesting that victory will not be swift or straightforward. Consequently, the economic and political pressures of the conflict may persist, challenging Trump’s assumptions about the effectiveness of his regional interventions.
In short, while Trump touts tactical successes, the enduring economic strain of war may ultimately test both his popularity and his strategic approach.