A sustained period of atmospheric instability has resulted in widespread precipitation and thunderstorms across almost all administrative divisions of Bangladesh, including the capital, Dhaka. While these meteorological conditions have provided a reprieve from typical seasonal heat, the human toll has been severe. Official records indicate that approximately 56 individuals have lost their lives nationwide due to lightning strikes over the past week. Despite the proactive dissemination of safety protocols and early warnings by the authorities, the mortality rate linked to these electrical discharges remains a critical concern for disaster management officials.
Table of Contents
Forty-Eight Hour Emergency Warning for Nor’westers
At 11:00 am on Tuesday, 28 April 2026, the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) issued a formal weather alert effective for the following 48 hours. The bulletin warns of imminent Nor’westers—locally termed Kalbaishakhi—which are expected to traverse the divisions of Rangpur, Rajshahi, Mymensingh, Dhaka, Khulna, Barisal, Chittagong, and Sylhet.
These storm systems are projected to originate from the West or North-West, generating wind speeds between 60 and 80 kilometres per hour. The BMD has emphasised that these winds will be accompanied by intense lightning activity and heavy localised downpours. Public anxiety regarding these volatile conditions is reflected in digital trends, with weather-related queries currently dominating search engine traffic in the region.
Maritime Safety and Temperature Projections
In response to turbulent conditions at sea, the BMD has instructed the maritime ports of Chittagong, Cox’s Bazar, Mongla, and Payra to hoist Local Cautionary Signal Number 3. Although high-velocity winds are currently affecting the coast, meteorologists have confirmed that there is no immediate threat of a low-pressure system or cyclone developing in the Bay of Bengal within the next ten days.
Senior Meteorologist Muhammad Abul Kalam Mallick observed that April 2026 has been uncharacteristically temperate. While the month usually sees average temperatures of 33.2°C, often peaking between 36°C and 42°C, this year has seen only one instance of extreme heat—a 40°C reading in Rajshahi on 22 April. However, this period of “comfortable” weather is expected to conclude shortly. Forecasts suggest that temperatures will exceed seasonal norms starting in the second week of May, with the trend potentially persisting through June. The combination of rising mercury and high humidity is expected to significantly increase the “real-feel” temperature and general physical discomfort.
Analytical Overview of the Pre-Monsoon Season
The months of March, April, and May comprise the pre-monsoon season in the Bengal Basin. This period is historically responsible for approximately 38% of the region’s annual lightning activity. Mr Mallick clarified the distinction between seasonal storms, noting that while thunderstorms occur during the monsoon (June to September), they are not classified as Kalbaishakhi.
The frequency of these storms in 2026 has already deviated from historical averages:
March: Average of 5 to 6 storms.
April: Average of 9 storms (2026 has already recorded over 10).
May: Average of 13 storms.
The increased frequency of thundercloud formation suggests a more violent transition into the late summer months. Meteorologists anticipate that from Wednesday, the Rajshahi and Khulna divisions will witness heightened thundercloud accumulation, which could result in significant structural and agricultural damage.
Long-term Outlook for May and Cyclonic Potential
May is traditionally recognised as the most cyclone-prone month in the North Indian Ocean. The BMD indicates the potential for one to two low-pressure systems to form in the Bay of Bengal during the latter half of the month. There remains a distinct possibility that one of these systems could mature into a depression or a full-scale cyclonic storm.
Due to the rapid nature of Nor’wester formation—which can occur within a few hours—long-range precision remains a scientific challenge. For the immediate future, residents in Dhaka, Mymensingh, and the coastal belts should prepare for temporary gusty winds and electrical storms before the expected rise in temperatures toward the end of the month.