The Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) has issued a significant weather advisory, indicating that a low-pressure system currently situated in the Bay of Bengal is poised to intensify. This meteorological development is expected to trigger a notable increase in precipitation across the country, with heavy rainfall forecasted particularly for the Rangpur, Rajshahi, and Mymensingh divisions. The comprehensive forecast, covering a period of 120 hours, was released at 6:00 PM on Tuesday, 12 May 2026.
According to Dr Md Omar Faruq, a meteorologist at the department, the low-pressure area originally located in the southwest Bay of Bengal and its adjacent regions, near the coast of northern Sri Lanka, remains stationary in that vicinity. However, current atmospheric conditions suggest that the system is likely to gain further strength. Concurrently, an extension of a western low-pressure system is active over West Bengal and its surrounding areas, creating a multi-faceted weather pattern that influences the South Asian subcontinent.
Twenty-Four Hour Atmospheric Projections
The initial 24-hour forecast suggests that light to moderate rain or thundershowers, accompanied by temporary gusty or squally winds, will occur at many places within the Rangpur, Rajshahi, and Mymensingh divisions. Additionally, some areas within the Dhaka and Sylhet divisions, and isolated locations in the Khulna, Barishal, and Chattogram divisions, are expected to experience similar conditions.
Meteorologists have specifically identified the risk of moderately heavy to heavy rainfall in certain pockets of the Rangpur, Rajshahi, and Mymensingh divisions. Despite the impending precipitation, national temperatures are expected to remain relatively stable during this initial period, with no significant fluctuations in heat levels anticipated.
Mid-Term Forecast and Rainfall Intensity
The projections for the subsequent several days indicate a persistent trend of rainfall across various regions. The BMD has highlighted that the northern and north-eastern regions, particularly the Rangpur, Mymensingh, and Sylhet divisions, may face moderate to heavy rainfall. In certain instances, there is a distinct possibility of very heavy downpours.
During this extended period, while the rainfall continues to dominate the weather landscape, daytime temperatures may exhibit slight fluctuations. The interaction between the intensifying low-pressure system in the Bay and the western disturbance over West Bengal is the primary driver for this sustained wet weather spell, which is anticipated to impact agricultural activities and daily commutes.
Inland River Port Warnings and Safety Measures
In response to the deteriorating weather conditions, the meteorological authorities have issued specific warnings for inland river ports. Until 1:00 AM on Wednesday, the regions of Rangpur, Rajshahi, Pabna, Tangail, Mymensingh, Dhaka, and Cumilla are likely to be affected by gusty or squally winds reaching speeds of 45 to 60 kilometres per hour. These winds are expected to be accompanied by rain and thundershowers.
Consequently, river ports in these affected areas have been advised to hoist Inland Riverine Warning Signal Number 1. This signal serves as a cautionary measure for small vessels and rivercraft to navigate with extreme care or remain near the shore. The authorities have emphasised that the combination of high wind speeds and lightning poses a substantial risk to riverine transport, and stakeholders are urged to monitor subsequent updates closely as the low-pressure system continues to evolve.
The Bangladesh Meteorological Department remains in a state of heightened surveillance, tracking the movement and pressure levels of the system to provide timely updates to the public and relevant disaster management agencies. Citizens residing in low-lying areas or regions prone to waterlogging are advised to take necessary precautions against sudden heavy rainfall.