Khabor Wala Desk
Published: 19th July 2026, 2:35 AM
France have been identified as the favourites to defeat England in the 2026 FIFA World Cup third-place play-off, with Opta’s supercomputer predicting Les Bleus to have a significantly greater chance of victory than their European rivals.
The match brings together two of Europe’s football heavyweights, both eager to finish the tournament on a positive note after falling short in the semi-finals. While the World Cup trophy is no longer within reach, the contest remains important as it offers a bronze medal, valuable FIFA ranking points and a substantial financial reward.
The third-place play-off is scheduled to kick off at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami on Saturday, 18 July, at 3:00 a.m. Bangladesh time. Both teams will be aiming to end their World Cup campaign with a victory after narrowly missing out on a place in the final.
France were beaten 2-0 by Spain in the semi-finals, while England suffered a hard-fought 2-1 defeat to reigning world champions Argentina. Despite the disappointment, both squads are expected to field competitive line-ups as they seek to conclude the tournament with a medal.
The stakes extend beyond pride. The winning nation will receive the World Cup bronze medal along with prize money of US$29 million, equivalent to approximately BDT 3.5 billion. The team finishing fourth will earn US$27 million, or roughly BDT 3.3 billion. The victorious side will also gain additional FIFA ranking points, which could prove valuable in future international competitions and tournament seedings.
The fixture also adds another chapter to the World Cup rivalry between France and England. This will be the fourth time the two nations have met on football’s biggest stage.
England emerged victorious in the first two encounters, defeating France 2-0 during the 1966 FIFA World Cup before recording a 3-1 win in the 1982 tournament. The most recent World Cup meeting, however, went in France’s favour. Les Bleus secured a 2-1 victory in the quarter-finals of the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar, eliminating England from the competition.
Ahead of the latest meeting, statistics-based analytics company Opta has released its probability forecast using its widely followed supercomputer model. According to the prediction, France have a 50.7 per cent chance of winning within the regulation 90 minutes.
England’s probability of securing victory in normal time stands at 25.6 per cent, while the likelihood of the match ending in a draw after 90 minutes is calculated at 23.7 per cent.
Although the statistical model places France in a commanding position, football has repeatedly shown that predictions do not guarantee results. Matches between evenly matched elite nations are often decided by fine margins, moments of individual brilliance or tactical adjustments. As a result, while the numbers favour France, England will believe they have every opportunity to overturn the odds and conclude their World Cup campaign with a third-place finish.
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